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Forum Post: RCP - the latest info

Posted 7 years ago on Oct. 28, 2012, 9:10 a.m. EST by bensdad (8977)
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and analysis



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[-] 2 points by Underdog (2971) from Clermont, FL 7 years ago
[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 7 years ago

ECV - Real Clear Politics average of the most recent polls And a few comments

DATE: 10/28 RCP has O with 290 ECV

& state

18 OH: O+2.3 monday morning O+2.1
All polls have been between a tie and O+5
The bottom line in this MOST IMPORTANT state is the crooks and the voting machines .
Tag Romney is a part owner of a voting machine company
Ohio voting machine fraud is here:

9 CO tie
slowly sliding to O where I think O will win it

13 VA tie
very flip-flop - sliding to O

10 WI: O+2.3
Polls have been tie to O+6
This will stay O

29 FL: R+1.8 monday morning R+1.2
Most polls are R & very close but I expect it to stay with R

4 NH O+1.4 monday morning O+2.0
slowly sliding more O

16 MI O+4.0
Ranges from tie to O+7.0 & will stay O

20 PA O+4.7
Ranges from O+3 to O+6 & will stay O

15 NC R+3.8
Will stay R

6 NV O+2.4
will stay O

Ohio Obama 49.8% Romney 46.6% O+ 3.2
Va. Obama 48.6% Romney 46.6% O+ 2.0
Colo. Obama 47.9% Romney 46.2% O+1.7
Iowa Obama 49.2% Romney 46.9% O+2.3
Nev. Obama 50.4% Romney 47.3% O+3.1
Wis. Obama 48.9% Romney 46.7% O+2.2
Mich. Obama 47.7% Romney 46.5% O+1.2
N.H. Obama 48.4% Romney 46.1% O+2.3
Fla. Romney 48.2% Obama 47.5% R+ 0.7 this close is very surprising
....................................................................if Fla goes O - its all over
................if you are in FL - beware the amendments on the ballot N.C. Romney 49.0% Obama 46.0% R+3.0

note- auto call polling tends to favor R because it cannot call cell phones
rasmussen & gallop polls tilt R
PPP poll tilts D
it is almost impossible for R to win without Ohio

nationally, R is ahead by about 1% of the popular vote
but ONLY the swing states matter

For example, if texas goes 51% R or 90% R - it get s the exact same number of votes in the electoral college - 38

[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

Steady as she goes.

[-] 1 points by Futurevision1 (-75) 7 years ago

Excuse me but I thought OWS was supposed to be non-partisan.

[-] 2 points by DKAtoday (33802) from Coon Rapids, MN 7 years ago

OWS "is" non partisan - the people who support OWS not necessarily so.

[-] 1 points by Futurevision1 (-75) 7 years ago

I see what you mean. Thanks.


[-] 0 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

I hope this is accurate. MSM seems to be pushing the story Romneys numbers improving. Especially women, & the increasing racism in electorate.

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 7 years ago

romney's numbers are improving
if romney gets 80% of TX in stead of 60% it does not matter
with our weird electoral college, only the above swing states matter

[-] 0 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

But Obama is still ahead in the swing states right?

[-] 2 points by bensdad (8977) 7 years ago

yes - I will update the above post periodically
if the election was held today, Obama would get 290 ECV [ 270 needed to win ]

[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

That's what I saw as well. Let's hope it can hold up.

[-] 1 points by gsw (3319) from Woodbridge Township, NJ 7 years ago
[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 7 years ago

one poll is not terribly important
thats why I use RCP that averages the last four polls
Ohio's latest single poll at RCP is O+4.0
and the RCP average is O+2.1
in a day or two, the last debate will "show up" in the polls
so will the koching flood of ads

[-] 1 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

Oh shit. We're in trouble now. Here comes the republican tea party revenge.

Hold on to your wallets & your vagina!

[-] 1 points by gsw (3319) from Woodbridge Township, NJ 7 years ago

Yea. From what I've seen the treasonous party R will explode the debt, by adding 2 trillion to defense.

No one supports that. Even CEOs are backing non-romney policies. http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/28/opinion/avlon-ceo-deficit-cutting/index.html

[-] 3 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

repubs always blow up the deficit. How else are they gonna justifying ending SS & medicare.

More war, more debt. more intrusion in our bedrooms, more rights violation, & more wacky religion!

[-] 1 points by MattLHolck (16833) from San Diego, CA 7 years ago

building bombs 'til bunkers boil

getting paid for shell filled toil

if I am to work tomorrow

lobe the load on foreign soil

yep US only pays 41% of the total world military budget

World Military budget in Billions (percent total) by Nation

  • 1,630 World Total
  • 711 United States 41%
  • 143 China 8.2%
  • 71.9 Russia 4.1%
  • 62.7 United Kingdom 3.6 %
  • 62.5 France 3.6%
  • 54.5 Japan 3.3&
  • 48.2 Saudi Arabia 2.8%
  • 46.8 India 2.5%
  • 46.7 Germany 2.8%
  • 37.0 Italy 2.3%


Global Arms Sales By Supplier Nations

39% United States

18% Russia

8% France

7% United Kingdom

5% Germany

3% China

3% Italy

11% Other European

5% Others


TOP 10 Arms Produces

Notes: An S denotes a subsidiary company. A dash (–) indicates that the company did not rank among the SIPRI Top 100 for 2009

  • Lockheed Martin USA 35,730 33,430 78
  • BAE Systems UK 32,880 32,540 95
  • Boeing USA 31,360 32,300 49
  • Northrop Grumman USA 28,150 27,000 81
  • General Dynamics USA 23,940 23,380 74
  • Raytheon USA 22,980 23,080 91
  • BAE Systems Inc. (BAE Systems, UK) USA 17,900 19,280 100
  • EADS Trans-European 16,360 15,930 27
  • Finmeccanica Italy 14,410 13,280 58
  • L-3 Communications USA 13,070 13,010 83
  • United Technologies USA


Widow Winchester's riffle wealth warped her house.

Stairs to ceilings. Windows to walls.

Always slept in a new room,

hiding from shot souls

[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 7 years ago

End the republican fear mongering they created after they exploited the 9/11 attacks and we will be on our way to change all these American misconduct.

Know the facts. Understand the roots. Or rant & rave against the current symptoms in a partisan attack on the people who are fighting for what you want.

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 7 years ago

I was posting FACTS - not political opinion, but since you "asked"

Obama’s Top 25 Accomplishments

I may not think everything Obama has done is ideal.
I may think some things Obama has not done should have been done.

If you have opinions and beliefs such as :
……Obama is not an American / Obama can control gas prices / Obama is a Muslim -
don’t waste your time reading the following facts

If you have opinions and beliefs such as :
……(sotomayor+kagan) = (alito+roberts)
don’t waste your time reading the following facts

If you have opinions and beliefs such as :
……or president is an all powerful executive that can always do what he wants
don’t waste your time reading the following facts

If you have opinions and beliefs such as :
……evolution is a “theory”, Noah put the kangaroos back in Australia, Bush is not a war monger
don’t waste your time reading the following facts

If you believe that, during the last 5 years, that
……Bain Romney or Cotton Mather Santorum has helped America
don’t waste your time reading the following facts

………………..y Paul Glastris, Ryan Cooper, and Siyu Hu

  1. Passed Health Care Reform: After five presidents over a century failed to create universal health insurance, signed the Affordable Care Act (2010). It will cover 32 million uninsured Americans beginning in 2014 and mandates a suite of experimental measures to cut health care cost growth, the number one cause of America’s long-term fiscal problems.

  2. Passed the Stimulus: Signed $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009 to spur economic growth amid greatest recession since the Great Depression. Weeks after stimulus went into effect, unemployment claims began to subside. Twelve months later, the private sector began producing more jobs than it was losing, and it has continued to do so for twenty-three straight months, creating a total of nearly 3.7 million new private-sector jobs.

  3. Passed Wall Street Reform: Signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) to re-regulate the financial sector after its practices caused the Great Recession. The new law tightens capital requirements on large banks and other financial institutions, requires derivatives to be sold on clearinghouses and exchanges, mandates that large banks provide “living wills” to avoid chaotic bankruptcies, limits their ability to trade with customers’ money for their own profit, and creates the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (now headed by Richard Cordray) to crack down on abusive lending products and companies.

  4. Ended the War in Iraq: Ordered all U.S. military forces out of the country. Last troops left on December 18, 2011.

  5. Began Drawdown of War in Afghanistan: From a peak of 101,000 troops in June 2011, U.S. forces are now down to 91,000, with 23,000 slated to leave by the end of summer 2012. According to Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, the combat mission there will be over by next year.

  6. Eliminated Osama bin laden: In 2011, ordered special forces raid of secret compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in which the terrorist leader was killed and a trove of al-Qaeda documents was discovered.

  7. Turned Around U.S. Auto Industry: In 2009, injected $62 billion in federal money (on top of $13.4 billion in loans from the Bush administration) into ailing GM and Chrysler in return for equity stakes and agreements for massive restructuring. Since bottoming out in 2009, the auto industry has added more than 100,000 jobs. In 2011, the Big Three automakers all gained market share for the first time in two decades. The government expects to lose $16 billion of its investment, less if the price of the GM stock it still owns increases.

  8. Recapitalized Banks: In the midst of financial crisis, approved controversial Treasury Department plan to lure private capital into the country’s largest banks via “stress tests” of their balance sheets and a public-private fund to buy their “toxic” assets. Got banks back on their feet at essentially zero cost to the government.

  9. Repealed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”: Ended 1990s-era restriction and formalized new policy allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military for the first time.

  10. Toppled Moammar Gaddafi: In March 2011, joined a coalition of European and Arab governments in military action, including air power and naval blockade, against Gaddafi regime to defend Libyan civilians and support rebel troops. Gaddafi’s forty-two-year rule ended when the dictator was overthrown and killed by rebels on October 20, 2011. No American lives were lost.

  11. Told Mubarak to Go: On February 1, 2011, publicly called on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to accept reform or step down, thus weakening the dictator’s position and putting America on the right side of the Arab Spring. Mubarak ended thirty-year rule when overthrown on February 11.

  12. Reversed Bush Torture Policies: Two days after taking office, nullified Bush-era rulings that had allowed detainees in U.S. custody to undergo certain “enhanced” interrogation techniques considered inhumane under the Geneva Conventions. Also released the secret Bush legal rulings supporting the use of these techniques.

  13. Improved America’s Image Abroad: With new policies, diplomacy, and rhetoric, reversed a sharp decline in world opinion toward the U.S. (and the corresponding loss of “soft power”) during the Bush years. From 2008 to 2011, favorable opinion toward the United tates rose in ten of fifteen countries surveyed by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, with an average increase of 26 percent.

  14. Kicked Banks Out of Federal Student Loan Program, Expanded Pell Grant Spending: As part of the 2010 health care reform bill, signed measure ending the wasteful decades-old practice of subsidizing banks to provide college loans. Starting July 2010 all students began getting their federal student loans directly from the federal government. Treasury will save $67 billion over ten years, $36 billion of which will go to expanding Pell Grants to lower-income students.

  15. Created Race to the Top: With funds from stimulus, started $4.35 billion program of competitive grants to encourage and reward states for education reform.

  16. Boosted Fuel Efficiency Standards: Released new fuel efficiency standards in 2011 that will nearly double the fuel economy for cars and trucks by 2025.

  17. Coordinated International Response to Financial Crisis: To keep world economy out of recession in 2009 and 2010, helped secure from G-20 nations more than $500 billion for the IMF to provide lines of credit and other support to emerging market countries, which kept them liquid and avoided crises with their currencies.

  18. Passed Mini Stimuli: To help families hurt by the recession and spur the economy as stimulus spending declined, signed series of measures (July 22, 2010; December 17, 2010; December 23, 2011) to extend unemployment insurance and cut payroll taxes.

  19. Began Asia “Pivot”: In 2011, reoriented American military and diplomatic priorities and focus from the Middle East and Europe to the Asian-Pacific region. Executed multipronged strategy of positively engaging China while reasserting U.S. leadership in the region by increasing American military presence and crafting new commercial, diplomatic, and military alliances with neighboring countries made uncomfortable by recent Chinese behavior.

  20. Increased Support for Veterans: With so many soldiers coming home from Iraq and Iran with serious physical and mental health problems, yet facing long waits for services, increased 2010 Department of Veterans Affairs budget by 16 percent and 2011 budget by 10 percent. Also signed new GI bill offering $78 billion in tuition assistance over a decade, and provided multiple tax credits to encourage businesses to hire veterans.

  21. Tightened Sanctions on Iran: In effort to deter Iran’s nuclear program, signed Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (2010) to punish firms and individuals who aid Iran’s petroleum sector. In late 2011 and early 2012, coordinated with other major Western powers to impose sanctions aimed at Iran’s banks and with Japan, South Korea, and China to shift their oil purchases away from Iran.

  22. Created Conditions to Begin Closing Dirtiest Power Plants: New EPA restrictions on mercury and toxic pollution, issued in December 2011, likely to lead to the closing of between sixty-eight and 231 of the nation’s oldest and dirtiest coal-fired power plants. Estimated cost to utilities: at least $11 billion by 2016. Estimated health benefits: $59 billion to $140 billion. Will also significantly reduce carbon emissions and, with other regulations, comprises what’s been called Obama’s “stealth climate policy.”

  23. Passed Credit Card Reforms: Signed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility, and Disclosure Act (2009), which prohibits credit card companies from raising rates without advance notification, mandates a grace period on interest rate increases, and strictly limits overdraft and other fees.

  24. Eliminated Catch-22 in Pay Equality Laws: Signed Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act in 2009, giving women who are paid less than men for the same work the right to sue their employers after they find out about the discrimination, even if that discrimination happened years ago. Under previous law, as interpreted by the Supreme Court in Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., the statute of limitations on such suits ran out 180 days after the alleged discrimination occurred, even if the victims never knew about it.

  25. Protected Two Liberal Seats on the U.S. Supreme Court: Nominated and obtained confirmation for Sonia Sotomayor, the first Hispanic and third woman to serve, in 2009; and Elena Kagan, the fourth woman to serve, in 2010. They replaced David Souter and John Paul Stevens, respectively.


[-] 0 points by hchc (3297) from Tampa, FL 7 years ago

You are one hell of a watered down politician.