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Forum Post: ECV numbers: Based on Real Clear Politics & NYT538

Posted 11 years ago on Sept. 11, 2012, 12:17 p.m. EST by bensdad (8977)
This content is user submitted and not an official statement

Although only one general national election poll
( except R tilted fox & rasmussen ) put Romney ahead
of Obama since mid-July, the key is only in the 9 swing states.

Obama has a close to solid core of 24 states with
237 of the 270 electoral votes needed.
He will win if he can add 33 ECV
from these 9 swing states
FL(24) or OH(18) or NC(15) or VA(13) or
WI(10) or CO(9) or NV(6) or IA(6) or NH(4)
These are the states with the current
margin of less than 4%
and most of these are slightly in ( D )

Also: Joe Walsh, Michelle Bachmann, Alan West may lose
lets keep our fingers crossed for
Steve King & Louis Gomert & Virginia Foxx

[ updated state analysis below ]



Read the Rules
[-] 2 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

The first debate cost Obama a point or three in all recent polls
some states below have not been polled since the debate
ditto the senate races I expect newer polls to continue to drop all D numbers 1-2 points
I am absolutely convinced that Biden / Ryan will reverse this slide

▬►▬►▬► 10 / 5 / 2012 1PM updated ◄▬◄▬◄▬

................RCP 4 poll composite......
Ohio (18).…............Obama +3.0..
Virginia (13)............Obama +0.4.................
Florida (29).............Obama +0.5......
Iowa (6)..................Obama +3.5
Colorado (9)............Obama +3.1
Nevada (6)..............Obama +5.2
North Carolina (15)...Romney +0.8

If the election was held TODAY Obama would win
[ win = 270 ]
RCP predicts the house will stay R
but the senate polls 48D + 43R with 9 toss ups [ AZ added ] my bet is that three or four of the D at the top of the following toss ups
will end up D so SENATE = 51D or 52D


VA D = +4.8 but has two very experienced very well funded candidates
MA D = +1.8 Warren is ahead & has been ahead in the most polls
two recent polls has D at +4 & +5 WI D = +5.0 D is ahead in most polls & R wants to chuck medicare

CT D = +3.0. Will this very D state really elect an R wrestling promoter ?

In CT: The main question was whether people wanted a Democratic or Republican controlled Senate and 50 percent to 38 percent say they are opting for the Democratsl.

IN: is very close but R = TeaParty = SarahPalin+AlanWest
........but may be too off the edge for this very conservative state
MT R = +1.7 but D Tester is a solid moderate incumbent who
..........could pull ahead
ND: R = +5.0. I think this will stay R in this very R state
NV: R = +1.6
AZ R = + 3.5 [ D=Vietnam veteran & doctor ]

Recent romney issues have hurt all Rs but in 2-3 weeks,
koch-adelson-etc may get off the dead horse and dump their
fortunes into these 8 senate races
I think it will be a race between romney's stupidity hurting the Rs
And the koch-adelson-rove money in October
I could see virtually every number above moving 1-2 points to the R with the super-pac flood

note- virtually all poll averages include PPP that tilts a point or two to D
and rasmussen that is VERY R by 3-5 ponts

And of course - back to the fundamental - how do we stop the crapitalists from buying our government?
Of the people, by the people, and for the people


also 51R senators = end of filibuster
or 50D senators + Biden = end of filibuster


[-] 1 points by MattHolck3 (34) 11 years ago

so a simple majority is all that's required to close debate?

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

good question - my brevity is obviously not clear

the Senate has compete control over its own rules at the start of each session.
So the filibuster CAN be eliminated or modified by majority vote
of the Senate only in Jan 2013

Assuming Obama is re-elected, I feel whoever is in the majority will want to get rid of it- D: because it will add pressure to the House
R: because it will add pressure on the President

[-] 2 points by MattHolck3 (34) 11 years ago

i could imagine rank breaking in both parties in continuing filibusters

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

Not impossible

[-] 2 points by LeoYo (5909) 11 years ago

Speaking of Fox News...

I'm sure you must've already come across this.


Criticism of a Republican from Fox News...FOX NEWS!!! I can't believe it! I'm still trying to...OMG...I just saw a pig fly by!

[-] 2 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

9/16/2012 SENATE = 48D + 46R + 6tossups

Connecticut In 2010, Linda E. McMahon, a Republican, spent tens of millions of dollars from her own pocket to win a Senate seat in the Nutmeg State, but the former chief executive of World Wrestling Entertainment was trounced by Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. She is back, and her retooled campaign has recast her as a moderate mother and grandmother.
Meantime, her Democratic opponent, Representative Christopher S. Murphy, has struggled with name recognition and personal finance questions. In a presidential election year, the state still leans Democratic, but Ms. McMahon is making Democrats pay attention.
Most polls show Murphy a head, but McMahon fortune has cut this to a tossup.

When the state treasurer, Richard Mourdock, emerged victorious from his primary campaign against the longtime Republican senator Richard G. Lugar, he was hailed as the Tea Party's next hero. Democrats saw something else: the Tea Party's next victim.
Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat, has run a textbook campaign, putting himself forward as a moderate ready to reach out t o Republicans to get things done against a conservative ideologue. That pitch has appealed to some longtime Lugar voters. Mr. Mourdock has tried to tack to the center, but a real race has developed. The contest still leans Republican, but it is tightening.
Conservative Indiana is likely to go with TP Mourdock.

Massachusetts Senator Scott P. Brown, a Republican, stunned the political class two years ago when he won a special election to fill the seat of the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy. His re-election bid is a critical piece of the Republican plan to win control of the Senate. He has huge support from Wall St. & banks. He faces a strong challenge from Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor, who became a champion to Democrats when she set up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the Obama administration.
This is THE 1% vs 99% race.

Montana Senator Jon Tester, a moderate Democrat, managed to narrowly win his 2006 race in a state where Democratic candidates for president rarely win. Mr. Tester, a rancher, has leveraged his just-folks image and occasional voting independence into a strong brand. He hopes that will encourage voters who pull the lever for a Republican presidential candidate to swing over to him when it is time to make a Senate choice instead of choosing his Republican opponent, Representative Denny Rehberg.

The retirement of Senator Jim Webb, a Democrat, has set the stage for one of the year’s most spirited races. Recent population shifts have turned the state into a presidential battleground. President Obama and his policies will be a central component of the Senate race, too, since the Democratic candidate, former Gov. Tim Kaine, led the Democratic National Committee under Mr. Obama.
The Republican contender, former Senator George Allen [ mr. mc caca ], is seeking vindication after a 2006 re-election defeat.
Two powerful political pros – just as the state is a presidential tossup.

North Dakota – probably R






[-] 1 points by MattLHolck (16833) from San Diego, CA 11 years ago
[-] 1 points by hchc (3297) from Tampa, FL 11 years ago

Wonderful. The corporate owned parties are going to sweep again.

[-] 2 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

Yes - I know all of your enemies are identical
It is so much easier than reasoning

[-] 0 points by hchc (3297) from Tampa, FL 11 years ago

There are differences. But it's a net loss every year regardless of who is in power.

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

( 9/13)
my best guess is that if Obama can hold on to these states
[ except VA & IA & NC ]
for the next two weeks - its over


[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 11 years ago

Except for the vote suppression that these polls do not reflect. And even he wins we must commit to protest him and all pols for real progressive change!

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

If he is NOT concerned about re-election, I believe he will be much tougher

[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 11 years ago

Yes. I agree. I believe he will have to give up trying to work with repubs, and turn to the people to put pressure for the change we need. If Dems retain the Senate AND take the House things should be easier.

But the best scenario would be people are protesting and pushing the country left. He should be smart enough to use the protests as FDR did.

[-] 1 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

Unfortunately, the Ds will not take the House
What is really scary is 51R Senators - that can ( and I'm sure WILL ELIMINATE ) the filibuster

[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 11 years ago

Yeah. R's would eliminate the filibuster after abusing it. If dems keep senate they should definitely get rid of filibuster in some way.

[-] 3 points by bensdad (8977) 11 years ago

Senate sets its own rules at the beginning of each annual "session" and is set by real majority
so if we get Obama/Biden + 50, Harry Reid CAN do it

I love his demand for willard's returns
but I don't understand why he did not do this in 2010

[-] 2 points by VQkag2 (16478) 11 years ago

I remember when they discussed it in 2010. I hope they do it this time. It needs to be done. And repubs will do it when they have the chance.