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Forum Post: July Four

Posted 1 year ago on July 25, 2013, 7:05 p.m. EST by ZenDogTroll (13032) from South Burlington, VT
This content is user submitted and not an official statement

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and each of these accidents has at least one thing in common -

human error.

WTF

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EDIT: The train crash in Canada may have been a criminal act, and that cannot be considered human error, rather it is human deliberation.



woops - It's worse than I thought . . .

  • Train travel in Europe generally safe despite deadly crashes in Spain, France this month

    • THE HAGUE, Netherlands - Two deadly railroad accidents inside two weeks that claimed 80 lives in Spain and six in France have raised questions about train safety across Europe. But experts say rail travel remains one of the safest forms of transport on the continent.

    • From Communist-era trains in parts of eastern Europe to modern high-speed TGVs hurtling through the French countryside, Europe has a vast array of trains but among the highest safety rates in the world, experts say.

    • "Accidents like this are incredibly rare," Sim Harris, managing editor of Rail News in Britain, said Thursday.

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Air and Rail Safety - Fatalities per 100 million person-kilometers: 0.035



And the train accident in France - apparently July 12 . . .

Two on the sixth.

One on the twelfth, the twenty second, and twenty-fourth . . .

  • 6
  • 6 * 2 = 12
  • 12 * 2 = 24
  • 2
  • 2 2
  • 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

9 Comments

9 Comments


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[-] 1 points by JPB950 (2254) 1 year ago

What "accident" isn't the result of an error? There are over 100,000 deaths every year listed as "accidental" that we could say are most likely due to human error. Unfortunate, but as humans we commit errors that take our life or the lives of others.

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[-] 0 points by JPB950 (2254) 1 year ago

I wouldn't call it statistically significant, looking at the most deadly train accidents of the last 25 years in Europe, this one seems to blend in to the group. Over 100 people died in three train accidents in 2006, 155 people died in a single crash in 2000. This one in Spain seems statistically unremarkable. I could almost say Europe was due for a large train accident (but I do know accidents are random events).

Looking at commercial airline accidents, there have been 8 so far in 2013. There were 13 in 2012, 25 in 2011, 26 in 2010, you can look at all of them back to 1919 here, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft . So far the only thing I can see about 2013 is that it's number of accidents is less then one might expect if they were looking for some kind of pattern.

I'm not sure I see what point are you trying to make. Accidents would be expected to occur at random there would be no pattern and occasionally they can and do occur close together.

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[-] 0 points by JPB950 (2254) 1 year ago

May be but it happens. Each event is independent of the others the probability doesn't actually accumulate and grow larger. The probability of rolling snake eyes once is 1 in 36. The next roll is independent of the first the probability of rolling snake eyes again is still 1 in 36. Same with the accidents, each is independent of the others. The media can often make things look unusual based on how many stories they run on an event.

This reminds me of 2001, the so called Summer of the shark. A couple of shark attacks resulted in media broadcasting so many stories that people got the feeling something unusual was happening. In fact 2001 was unremarkably ordinary in the number of attacks by sharks. More people are killed by getting hit on the head by a falling coconut then by a shark.

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[-] 0 points by forourfutures (393) 1 year ago

Uh, maybe there is something to this wacky numerology I found after all. Apparently 22 is special.

http:truthasaur.com

[-] -1 points by MarriageEquality (-1) 1 year ago

Wtf ZenDog? The 'F" word? Seriously?

ZenDog (16285) from South Burlington, VT 2 hours ago

that goddamned shit throwing goopgoblin trashy macaque faggot just won't leave me alone . . .

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