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Forum Post: Dollar now in decline as I told you it would be

Posted 1 year ago on Nov. 23, 2012, 9:22 p.m. EST by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL
This content is user submitted and not an official statement

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/?version=1

Lower valued dollar = higher prices

This is the explanation for all of the supposed record sales. The Fed and WallSt stopped keeping count of sales volume long ago and began tracking by revenue. This is commonly used to make misleading cases such as the record sales by Wal-Mart.

You can keep ignoring this but your paycheck is worth less, regardless of your acknowledgement.

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60 Comments


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[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

And FYI the Fed has no business keeping track of sales volume. And Walmart sure does need to keep track of sales volume. Even a small store does keep track of sales volume so as to be able to restock etc, and Walmart, the behemoth with enviable inventory management practices sure has to. Thou art an idiot

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

Please, feel free to show us the walmart sales volume. I will if you don't.

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

Oh you have access to Walmart's entire inventory data? haha.

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

I am sorry but you do not provide adequate evidence to justify your case (though this won't be the first time you post some half baked nonsense)

  1. Walmart imports majorly from China. Over a 365 day period, the USD has fallen from 6.289 RNM to 6.34 RNM which quite frankly isnt enough to cause "record sales" http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-CNY-exchange-rate-history.html

  2. You assume that the entire burden of the exchange rate is spontaneously passed on to the consumer. Doesn't usually happen and there is a time lag. In fact a stronger dollar would help companies like Walmart while a weaker and weaker dollar (or a stronger RNM)could one day make imports not so profitable and may be all jobs will be back to America.

  3. You do not factor in the exchange rate hedging that any importer does. Usually currencies are hedged to upto 6 months to a year in advance. So any short term fluctuations won't affect Walmart.

  4. The Consumer price index sure has increased but then not enough to justify your theory. The index for all items less food and enery has risen by 0.2% (the shelter index has risen by 0.3% the highest and Walmart doesnt yet sell homes) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

  5. I can similarly point out the inflation figure which again won't justify your stance. I would leave that you.

Moral of the story: Don't make stupid claim. Not everyone here is gullible. And data can kick your ass.

[-] -1 points by clamor (-40) from Hopatcong, NJ 1 year ago

BTW, for all the liberal "believers" here: regarding CPI not calculated with food and energy. Why is that?

So Uncle Sham doesn't have to kick in more COLAs for Social InSecurity and all the other "entitlements". By artificially stating inflation rates low, the CPI remains low and COLAs are indexed to the CPI.

No wonder SS is going broke. A program where people take out nearly three times what they paid in by the time they retire and a program that earns virtually no interest (less than a percent over the life of the earners FICA deductions). A mathematical ponzi scheme and a train wreck in the making.

And as a bonus:

In 1960, there were 134 workers for every person on disability.

In 2010, there were 16 workers for every person on disability.

Multiple train wrecks coming... and you can't tax enough to get us out of them!

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

CPI is calculated n reported both with and without food and energy. Not just that inflation in each individual component of CPI is also reported

[-] 0 points by clamor (-40) from Hopatcong, NJ 1 year ago

...and which set of numbers do they use to base COLAs on?

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

Walmart imports majorly from China. Over a 365 day period, the USD has fallen from 6.289 RNM to 6.34 RNM which quite frankly isnt enough to cause "record sales" http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-CNY-exchange-rate-history.html

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Walmart+claims+record+Black+Friday+sales+despite/7602199/story.html

You assume that the entire burden of the exchange rate is spontaneously passed on to the consumer. Doesn't usually happen and there is a time lag. In fact a stronger dollar would help companies like Walmart while a weaker and weaker dollar (or a stronger RNM)could one day make imports not so profitable and may be all jobs will be back to America.

This has nothing to do with exchange rate, dip shit. The dollar is domestic and the product is sold domestically, and this isn't about walmart, stop trying to switch gears on a topic you don't own.

You do not factor in the exchange rate hedging that any importer does. Usually currencies are hedged to upto 6 months to a year in advance. So any short term fluctuations won't affect Walmart.

The buffer comes from the timeline of ordering v inventory v shelf stock, no, currency investment is not part of the walmart import export model, dumb ass.

The Consumer price index sure has increased but then not enough to justify your theory. The index for all items less food and enery has risen by 0.2% (the shelter index has risen by 0.3% the highest and Walmart doesnt yet sell homes) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

You continue to try and seperate energy from cost when every cost incurs the cost of energy, stop trying to omit the facts, fucktard.

Moral of the story: Don't make stupid claim. Not everyone here is gullible. And data can kick your ass.

I have provided this forum and you personally several time with this data. I'm beginning to think it isn't MoveOn behind team forum-fuck and is probably a group of small time investors.

Find my posts regarding the economy by using the forum search tool.

Go fuck yourself.

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago
  1. A weaker dollar would effect prices if the goods are imported (or made of stuff that's imported). For domestically produced & consumed stuff, a weaker or stronger dollar makes no difference. hence your argument would anyways not be valid. I won't be surprised if you do not even understand what you are arguing about.

  2. I mentioned Walmart because Walmart's import is around 10% of net US imports. And I assumed you are talking about imports because you mentioned a weaker dollar. If yoo aren't talking about imports then your entire premise is flawed.

  3. "The buffer comes from the timeline of ordering v inventory v shelf stock, no, currency investment is not part of the walmart import export model, dumb ass." - I don't know what 'currency investment' you are talking about. But if you are think Walmart buys stuff from their Chinese exporters at spot exchange rates, then god help you. Every heard of forwards?

  4. The effect of increase in energy prices on goods are already factored in the prices of goods. The CPI is calculated on actual prices of goods. So you are the fucktard here.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

I'm tired of your blather. Make a concise point and provide corroboration.

[-] 1 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

Concise point: Your reasoning for record sales is bonkers. Corroboration: Everything i wrote above

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

You are no corroboration. You are a fraud with many user names, pushing a pro-WallSt agenda under the ruse of support for Occupy. You help support noise threads and ego-boosting nonsense in order to suppress anything that goes against WallSt with actual facts. You even attempt to dismiss charts and graphs provided by reliable sources and industry outlets by browbeating users.

[-] -1 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

yup. u got me. damn u r so smart

[-] 0 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

15 minutes and that's it? Losing it dude.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

A weaker dollar would effect prices if the goods are imported (or made of stuff that's imported). For domestically produced & consumed stuff, a weaker or stronger dollar makes no difference. hence your argument would anyways not be valid. I won't be surprised if you do not even understand what you are arguing about.

That is a nothing statement. You said absolutely nothing there.

I mentioned Walmart because Walmart's import is around 10% of net US imports. And I assumed you are talking about imports because you mentioned a weaker dollar. If yoo aren't talking about imports then your entire premise is flawed.

You said I "made up" the record sales report. Then showed you a link, exposing your spin.

"The buffer comes from the timeline of ordering v inventory v shelf stock, no, currency investment is not part of the walmart import export model, dumb ass." - I don't know what 'currency investment' you are talking about. But if you are think Walmart buys stuff from their Chinese exporters at spot exchange rates, then god help you. Every heard of forwards?

apples and oranges. You're trying to spin out, again.

The effect of increase in energy prices on goods are already factored in the prices of goods. The CPI is calculated on actual prices of goods. So you are the fucktard here.

Really? Because prices are up, jack ass.

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago
  1. I did say quite a bit. But I can understand why you think like that. It's ok. Not everyone has an IQ of over 70.

  2. I never said you made up the record sales part. Yes Walmart does claim record sales. I just said your reasoning for the same is utterly wrong.

  3. you need an IQ > 70

  4. You are comparing data from 1950 to 2010. Yes, prices are up from what they were in 1950. But what is the increase in CPI over last year? Leaving aside food and energy it's 0.2%

Hey, don't embarrass yourself. It's not right on my part to pick on someone weaker. Please continue blabbering nonsense here because the mentally challenged too have equal rights as the rest of us.

[-] 0 points by TrevorMnemonic (5827) 1 year ago

Is the dollar weaker today in comparison to 20 years ago?

Why?

[-] -1 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

weaker in comparison to what currency or basket of currency?

[-] 0 points by TrevorMnemonic (5827) 1 year ago

What are your thoughts on this statement

"Lower valued dollar = higher prices"

?

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

its a vague statement. well first u have to tell me lower valued against what currency and to what extent. the dollar cannot be lower valued against itself. Yes the purchasing power of the dollar would steadily drop in a growing economy because of inflation. But thats not technically a "lower valued dollar"

[-] 1 points by TrevorMnemonic (5827) 1 year ago

We're talking the purchasing power here in the US. You know for the everyman.

Our currency compared to the Vanuatu vatu for example... doesn't really matter.

[-] 1 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

Sorry but I don't think you even understand your question

There are two ways in which purchasing power of any currency is affected

  1. Inflation (or deflation)- Most obvious. However, the affect would also depend on rise in wages in that country. However, inflation isn't necessarily bad, too much inflation is. Any growing economy would have inflation. Inflation may also be caused by (global) shortages in food supply or oil supply etc. It can also happen if a certain poorer section of the population suddenly starts earning more. Say we were to take 90% of all wealth of the richest 1% and distribute it to the poorest 20%. Suddenly these erstwhile poor people will have sufficient money to buy adequate quantities of food, clothes, cars and even houses. If this happens suddenly, then supply would not be able to keep pace with demand in the short run and there would be a scarcity of the above goods and therefore their prices would increase. (FYI, this actually happened in India recently where their government implemented some scheme which guaranteed employment to the poor in rural areas. India's food prices rose all of a sudden and thus did inflation)

  2. Exchange rate of the currency w.r.t another currency: USA imports a lots of goods (and services too like IT from India etc) and we pay for it in dollars. Lets take a hypothetical case. Let say the Dollar-Renminbi exchange rate if 6, you get 6 RMB for every USD). Now say tomorrow morning the rate fell to 3, you get 3 RMB for every dollar. Now imagine the Nike shoe that was being imported from China for say $50 (or RMB 300), that same shoe would now cost the importer $100 (RMB 300 at an exchange rate of 3). So now, the American consumer who is picking it up at a Nike store in Manhattan would have to pay double for the shoe (may not be exactly double, but this is a simplified scenario). So the purchasing power of the dollar has dropped against the RMB. However, the dollar still hold its position against the Swiss Franc or the Indian Rupee and therefore imported goods from those countries would still be the same price.

But this is not necessarily bad. It could so happen that a stronger RMB w.r.t to the Dollar could make outsourcing seem not all that lucrative and slowly those companies would again start manufacturing in America (or they could take their manufacturing to another poor third world country)

How's that for Econ 101 !

[-] 1 points by TrevorMnemonic (5827) 1 year ago

I know all about inflation.

One of the areas you left out that also contributes to inflation is creating new money without the creation of new wealth.

We're in the too much inflation zone. It's bad. It's crushing a lot of people and it's a contributing factor to the lagging economy.

Your theory about keeping the poor people poor in the name of fighting inflation is bogus.

[-] 0 points by ExGoldmanSachs (-52) 1 year ago

Well I doubt if even Bernanke or Draghi know 'everything about inflation'. I certainly dont.

Yes money creation or increasing money supply affects inflation and vice versa. But if we are going there then we would also have to get into repo and re-repo.

I dont think our inflation is a cause of concern, yet. Rather growth in recent times is a cause of concern.

I dont know what theory you are talking about. I never said poor people should be kept poor. I was merely tryiing to point out that various factors can lead to inflation. In this particular example (the initiative is named NREGA btw) inflation was undesirable but inevitable. If you spent a little more of time reading something like The Economist (econ journals or books would be too much of a stretch) you would know this. As India, China and many african countries get more well off, demand for resources would increase and thus would their prices. its inevitable.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

lol, I'm beginning to think the 4-5 are actually just 1-2. You all have the same style of retort. Trained monkeys or someone trying to add clout to a pro-WallSt agenda. I'll go with the latter.

[-] -1 points by clamor (-40) from Hopatcong, NJ 1 year ago

Just like you told us? LOLZ. Buddy, if you're the canary in the coalmine, you've been stuffed for about 40 years.

Higher prices come from MAIDEN LANE, TALF, TARP, QE to infinity and all the federal ponzi schemes the do-gooders have thrust upon us.. social security, medicare, medicaid, fannie, freddie, sallie, HUD, federal pensions and the other BS.

What's this "now" crap you're peddling?

[-] 0 points by shooz (17672) 1 year ago

Oh my.

You mean it has nothing to do with the do-badders?

Nothing to do with welfare states like Mississippi sucking the working man dry?

Nothing to do with constantly rising profit margins?

Nothing to do with the WallStreet profit pyramid?

How come I don't believe you?

Could it be that the confusion caused by saying that good things are bad, just comes off as wrong headed?

I think it might be so.

I think you just took a crap in your brain.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

You're blending unrelated issues. Another attempt at turning it into a partisan issue so that it can then be controlled by labels instead of facts. Fail.

[-] -3 points by clamor (-40) from Hopatcong, NJ 1 year ago

Nope, you're ignoring WHY the dollar is in decline. You're an economic illiterate who tries to reassign blame when the true blame is the U.S. GOVERNMENT, not Wall Street.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

It's both.

[-] -3 points by clamor (-40) from Hopatcong, NJ 1 year ago

Nope. Wally World and Wall Street don't print dollars endlessly. They don't create entitlements. They don't have idiots who have never worked in business sitting in the beltway trying to centrally manage the economy by edict. Uncle Sham does.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

Again with attempting to refocus the issue onto persons or entities that can then be argued at large. Diluting the issue.

[-] -1 points by clamor (-40) from Hopatcong, NJ 1 year ago

refocus: A set of facts richardkentgates doesn't like.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

Money in politics. Source and destination. WallSt to Washington. Now, please show me how you separate those issues again? LMAO. tool

[-] -1 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

You can't blame Wall Street if government is corrupt; you can only blame this on those who promote and sign the legislation.

[-] -1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

You mean the legislation drawn up by WallSt lobbyists? You're funny.

[-] -1 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

No, not at all. I mean the politicians who put their names to all that legislation.

[-] -1 points by Coyote88 (-24) 1 year ago

True. But it's good in the long run.

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

I know the argument. A lower dollar makes us more competative with China. As in, you will work for the same wages they make in china but the dollar will be so devalued that you think you're making more. Unfortunately illusions are not reality. We used to buy from china because it saved us money but now we buy from china because our own products are unaffordable. So that argument is already shown to be flawed.

[-] -1 points by Coyote88 (-24) 1 year ago

No, not that arguements. Collapse is what some hope for...

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

I was hoping for a collapse of WallSt because it would have prevented further printing and detached their problems from the rest of the economy as they would then be unsavable. Unfortunately, they are going to drag us down with them because there was no market collapse to sink them first.

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[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

This is the tool they have used for 30 years now to fuck the working class. It's how we got here. To this point in history. Words cannot express how flabbergasted I am that it goes ignored here, in the media, and in congress. This is a fucking joke. The only people that want change are incapable and/or unwilling to understand what stands in the way and those that do understand it are too busy stuffing their pockets to give a flying fuck. Drunk with power. My hands in the air, this is pointless. Go fuck yourselves.

Realty bubble? Try a currency bubble, happening right in front of your face.

Feel free to stand and watch.

[-] -2 points by john23 (-272) 1 year ago

It's too hard of a concept for most people to grasp. They would have to sit down and actually try to understand something that isn't directly spoon fed to them.

I agree though....this is at the root of todays problem and most people are completely oblivious.

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

It's time for MoveOn to actually move on. There is nothing left to hide behind. This is where it begins. All hands plaid, talking points exhausted. Time to pay the piper but there isn't enough money. We're already poor, it'll be just another day for us. But you, it may take some getting used to for you and yours. Good luck.

[-] -3 points by hchc (3297) from Tampa, FL 1 year ago

Amen to all that. This country is a train wreck waiting to happen, and its going to take almost 100% of the people with it.

[-] -3 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

I don't think you or anyone understand me and if they do, they certainly don't believe me, but it's hard to watch and not say something.

If you follow the decline trends for the last rounds of QE, following that trend from the current start of decline, we will hit the bottom faster than the Fed can take action to counter it. They plaid with fire and we're all going to burn for it, very very soon. I have been saying this would happen around this time for the last 8 months. I've gotten nothing but flack for it so as shitty as it sounds, when the complaints begin hitting the forum, I'm going to be at my keyboard laughing.

[-] 2 points by 99nproud (1912) 1 year ago

So then you are more pleased that you were right than you are concerned about the coming economic crash?

[-] 1 points by MattLHolck (16833) from San Diego, CA 1 year ago

do we import more material goods than we export?

[-] -2 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 1 year ago

That is a common argument but flawed. a lower valued dollar forces prices up, so exports fall as our products are less affordable.

(-dollar) = (+price) = (-imports)

[-] -2 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

This was the reason I voted for McCain the first time around; he was the only one talking about these issues. But when the votes go to the other guy, we are left to conclude that no one cares about corruption in government, our monetary policy, or the crash of our dollar. The African American community has been talking about this for some time now.

[-] 2 points by 99nproud (1912) 1 year ago

McCain said he didn't understand the economic issues, Remember? So no McCain was not talking about this. He was talking about passing the bailouts that created this.

[-] 0 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

Actually you're wrong. McCain attempted to introduce issues such as economic policy and the national debt but he was completely ignored. He was adamant about these issues, determined, and angry. And I liked that because it takes determination and anger to thwart this corrupt Congress.

[-] 1 points by 99nproud (1912) 1 year ago

McCain did not understand the economy, Still does not, and admitted it.

[-] 0 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

McCain is a career politician; as such he often appears willing to compromise, to cut a deal, and that is far too left for most conservatives. He was not my first choice. But still I liked the idea that he tried to introduce these issues in national debate and I liked what appeared to be his determination and anger concerning such issues - it takes anger and determination to overcome a corrupt Congress.

McCain doesn't understand economy - I have bad news for you - nobody does. This appears especially true of the current administration; there's no doubt in my mind that we would have been far better off had we elected McCain.

I would also add to this that I am unwilling to discount his military service; this was also true of Dole. I simply cannot do that. Because I know that the level of anger and determination for "right" runs really deep. And in light of all our current dystopia, it is sorely needed.

[-] 0 points by 99nproud (1912) 1 year ago

Mccain is a bitter old man and part of the corrupt congress for 30 years. He does not understand the economy and would have worsened the great recession that Bush and his 1% "base" created. Mccain is also the worst of the war mongers and would have invaded at least 2 or 3 other countries for their resources. Thank god we were at least smart enough to keep that right wing wacko out of office. Romney the vulture capitalist plutocrat as well. Good day.

[-] 1 points by Shule (1696) 1 year ago

Dollar deflation started happening big time a little after Ex-Pres Bush II invaded Iraq. Back then, the government was issuing extra T-bills to pay for the damn war. Interest rates started rising in consequence. Issuing T-bills makes economic sense when the government is in need of money, but the trouble was interest rates on government securities were forcing mortgage and other consumer interest rates up to a point where people could no longer afford them. People were simply tapped out. Hence, our recession before the big one in 2008. The Bush administration curtailed financing war by way of issuing T-bills, and started financing the only other way it could. They started printing money. The net effect being a price inflation which effectively cut the buying power of all Americans (and everybody else holding greenbacks) in half.

[-] -1 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

No... it began about the year 2000; do your research. Bit it really doesn't matter when it started, when it comes to debt one's economic hindsight is irrelevant.

Our current policy does little more than impoverish average people and enable greater national debt. But it will not last; eventually we'll flat bottom and interest rates will rise with the potential to increase national debt threefold.

[-] 1 points by Shule (1696) 1 year ago

As long as the government is avoiding the issuance of debt by printing money, interest rates will stay low. So long as nobody is crying foul, this can conceivably go on forever. You're correct though; the average person is going to get impoverished nevertheless.

[-] -1 points by RedDragon (-161) 1 year ago

Yea but the reality is that eventually some will cry foul; this is not sustainable.

[-] -3 points by hchc (3297) from Tampa, FL 1 year ago

There is a good link by TrimTabs that states what you are saying with the actual bumps it gave along with the decline after round, and how each time it loses more and more umpf.

We may have slightly different views on the monetary situation, but I think we both agree that the shit is fucked up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWvs8l7fkFE I think this was the one