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Forum Post: A note on how to read Economic Figures.

Posted 2 years ago on Oct. 5, 2012, 4:22 p.m. EST by hazencage (58)
This content is user submitted and not an official statement

The government never phased out the U6 number, but instead they simply rely on U3 because it is a number that is more indicative of future economic developments. Many economists actually rely on the U1 unemployment series when it comes to making predictions about a possible recession occurring. On the other hand the U3 unemployment rate is a medium number that combines both U2, and U1, but does one more important thing, and this being that it includes the amount of unemployed seeking employment. Hence, the U3 unemployment figure could be used to estimate how many more individuals are likely to be employed in the future because the figure excludes those whom are not actively seeking employment. This is important if the economy is growing, because then it is more likely these individuals will get employed and henceforth it would also become safer to assume that consumer spending will pick up as well as the U3 figure begins to drop.

Finally their are many conservatives whom point out the U6 figure, but at the same time talk as if inflation is going to be a future problem. So then how is inflation going to pick up if so many individuals are receiving less pay checks, and therefore spending less? Sorry Conservatives you cant have it both ways.

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[-] 1 points by hazencage (58) 2 years ago

< Inflation has jack shit to do with employment numbers> False if U6 is high then it is possible to assume that consumer spending is low, and henceforth inflation is low.

//Once demand picks up, this not so visible inflation will make a major appearance on graphs and charts across the globe, marking the beginning of the second stage of the crisis which would not exists if not for the printing of money, hyperinflation.//

There is a difference between a steady rate of inflation and a not so steady rate of inflation(i.e supply shock).

[-] 1 points by richardkentgates (3269) from Fort Walton Beach, FL 2 years ago

lol, so facts change based on party? Inflation has jack shit to do with employment numbers. Inflation's key component is the consumer price index but can also be viewed through production price indexes for a more immediate prediction. Inflation has a few components like wage cost, energy prices, currency volume, and even interest rates if you want a detailed analyses.

What you're doing here is trying to segregate what facts are really facts based on what party the the reader is aligned with. There could be no more intentional propaganda than this spineless trickery.

If you compare product sales volumes to prices, you can see very clearly the inflation that democratic party economists say isn't taking place. Once demand picks up, this not so visible inflation will make a major appearance on graphs and charts across the globe, marking the beginning of the second stage of the crisis which would not exists if not for the printing of money, hyperinflation.

[-] 1 points by Underdog (2971) from Clermont, FL 2 years ago

I remember you from my post here. Just wanted to let you know that I am not a conservative, but a progressive liberal (have been all my life). What I am is a long-term unemployed 57-year old who has had a very hard time finding a job in this area after being laid-off in March of 2009. So I have an interest in unemployment rates and such.

[-] 1 points by hazencage (58) 2 years ago

This post was created because often times conservatives, libertarians, and some liberals like to tout the U6 number way too often. On a side note the key working group population is considered between the age of 24 and 25. Currently I am unemployed as well, and because of this I went back to school but chose continuing studies instead of grad school. As a result I am paying less for my education, but I am also one of the younger individuals in the class. Most of my questions revolve around how I can get employed, and its nice to see that proffesors are giving students hints at various skills they could easily pick up in order to ensure employment within the field.

[-] 1 points by Underdog (2971) from Clermont, FL 2 years ago

That is quite interesting and surprising that "the key working group population is considered between the age of 24 and 25." That seems quite young to me. Why is it considered "key". Key to what?

[-] 1 points by hazencage (58) 2 years ago

i meant 24 and 54.