Forum Post: What we are up against...

This is a serious concern. Many posts indicate that the writers think voting for and electing a Presidential candidate next year (there is little mention of contesting Congressional races) will constitute a "win" and the celebrations can begin... Simply stated, that is just not going to happen, even if OWS were able to successfully back a horse in the race.

When Congress is mentioned, at all, it's in the context of "cleaning house" during next year's elections -- when the simple fact is only one-third of Congressional seats will be contested in 2012. Even if OWS is able to successfully contest each and every seat during the election, and win all of them, we would still be unable to control policy. It's a simple numbers game -- it will take six years, from the date of our first contested elections, to have a shot at every seat in Congress.

Our adversary has money (scads of it), organization and control (especially of the electoral process and media). We have no money, need supporters (tens of millions) and organization. In order to successfully wrest control of Congress from the elites we need, at least and by conservative estimate, thirty percent of the eligible voters in each state to support us and vote for our candidates. This is a minimum.

As an illustration consider this: If, in any particular election in any state, approximately fifty percent (50%) of eligible voters do not vote, and if the D & R candidates split a close vote with one receiving fifty-one percent (51%) and the other forty-nine percent (49%), then that means the winning candidate received approximately twenty-five and one-half percent (25.5%) of all possible votes. Thus it will be necessary, to win in that race, to have at least twenty-six percent (26%) of the electorate vote for our candidate. And that's a close win, by a whisker, and too close to call beforehand. Moreover, it is a best case scenario.

Now multiply those percentages, let's assume a Senate race to keep things simple, by the population eligible to vote in any state of your choice... And there are fifty states, and it will take at least six years to have an opportunity to contest each and every seat in Congress.

This is simple, practical, electoral reality.

In my opinion, the worst mistake OWS could make is to contest elections before it has, at least, a better than even chance of winning. In Landon's words, "Nothing happens by chance in our political system." If we contest elections before establishing a solid foundation of wide (defined as committed and organized supporters in all fifty states) and deep (defined as at least thirty percent of eligible voters in each state) support, OWS risks everything, especially disappointment among supporters and attacks from without for incompetence, on essentially a long-shot chance that provides no practical (defined as control of policy) reward.

Now, perhaps I am wrong and OWS can achieve wide and deep support over the next twelve months. It can organize effectively and formulate a coherent message that resonates with voters. This is highly unlikely, in my opinion, because I've been here before (remember the Greens? -- grassroots democracy, consensus decision-making), but if we are able to do so, then I would fully support a slate of OWS candidates to initiate a fight for control of Congress.

The only other practical option, in my opinion, is to use a simple and easy to understand protest vote in the 2012 elections. To give the fifty percent who do not currently vote a reason to register, vote NotA and support us. To give voters casting their ballots for the least worse candidate a reason to vote NotA and support us.