Forum Post: US Unemployment Rate
Posted 12 years ago on Feb. 1, 2012, 6:49 p.m. EST by JoeTheFarmer
(2654)
This content is user submitted and not an official statement
If you look at the ups and downs of the last 70 years it appears we are may be heading in the right direction.
UPDATE : --------------------------------------------------------------
In the most impressive surge for the job market since early last year, the United States added 243,000 jobs in January, far more than economists expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest in three years.
Hiring accelerated across the economy and up and down the pay scale. The high-salary professional services industry added 70,000 jobs, the most in 10 months. Manufacturing added 50,000, the most in a year.
Read more.... Let's hope the trend will continue!
But you must remember that it only accounts for people who are "receiving unemployment insurance" and does not count those who are now off unemployment insurance and still unemployed.
Salient point.
A more realistic picture is what % of the total population is in the paid workforce. People are out of it willingly and unwillingly. Those are the REAL numbers of unemployed.
This site is real close to the actual number unemployed
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-jobless-rate-114-realistic-labor-force-participation-rate
i have a friend high up at a top payroll processor and, in no uncertain terms, has she said it's 18-19% with about another 15% underemployment--because they work with employers directly and are not relying on the shadow UC system, there numbers are much better and collected more broadly. the gov't feels responsible for morale, which can actually help the economy if there is high morale, so they "fudge it" a little bit--or in this case, alot.
Thanks. Before seeing that, i surmised the rate was somewhere around 55% with paid employment and 40% either retired, too young, opted out or unhappily un/underemployed.
A rate of 60% or more employed was socially sustainable when we were paired off into families with one wage earner and one not. The social changes in how we self select into marriage and family cannot and should not be discounted. When everyone seeks an equally successful spouse, the disparity between highest and lowest household incomes grows further apart.
There isn't maliciousness or conspiracy involved, but simply a predictible outcome.
[Removed]
I am not talking about the rate I am talking about the trend. It is moving in the direction we want it to move in. I hope it will continue to drop.
I know our company has increased demand and is hiring. That is a good thing. Let's hope it continues.
Time will tell there are still over 13 million people out of work and 46 million on some type of government support.
Believe it or not there are a lot of jobs available if you know where to look.
I know that as well as you. But you know what, people don't want to look. I worked construction years ago and when I needed a job so that I could pay my bills and keep from going into bankrupcy, I traveled across lived in a tent and camper to do so.
I doubt that there is one person who reads this post of the younger generation who understands that if you own something (houses included) you will do whatever you need to do to keep it.
If that means travling across country looking for work, so be it. My next door neighbor is doing that right now.
More Data:...Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-
The unemployment rate is used as a political pawn especially in a year of a presidential election. The Republicans want to report it higher (and, ironically, more accurately) because they think it will hurt the incumbent Democratic president. The Democrats (who, ironically, are more likely to help the unemployed) want to keep the rate down because they think that will help the incumbent Democratic president.
If we could only get money out of politics I think we might see some morality return to our government. Maybe reporting would become more accurate. Is that too much to ask?
I am not talking about the rate I am talking about the trend. It is moving in the direction we want it to move in. I hope it will continue to drop.
I know our company has increased demand and is hiring. That is a good thing. Let's hope it continues.
The trend is good, obviously, if it is true. The unemployment rate is a political weapon, though. It really is. We should call them all out on this. The unemployment rate has a human face as being unemployed is a disaster for most people.
Sure if you are willing to accept BLS lies!
Even if the data is off a bit the trend is in the right direction. I feels like the economy is bouncing back to me. Our company is seeing steadily increasing demand and is hiring several positions.
It's off a lot....I'm guessing you actually aren't a farmer?
This humorous, yet sad video conveys the true state of unemployment in the country.. The actual percentage of unemployed is much greater than the official BLS figure promulgated in the media and government.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulu3SCAmeBA&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Did you notice they all stooped looking. If that is the case then they are losers and do not deserve to be counted.
In less than 10 seconds I found more than 1,000 automotive jobs. http://jobsearch.monster.com/search/Automotive_5
And there are plenty of other jobs.
http://www.monster.com/ http://www.careerbuilder.com/default.aspx?cbRecursionCnt=1 http://www.snagajob.com/
I think you missed the point and went off subject. The discussion was focused on the accuracy of BLS official unemployment figures vs. a more accurate figure of Americans who are not working or marginally/minimally working. The reasons for their unemployment is a topic of another debate.
I did not miss the point I understood the point that BLS does not count people who gave up looking. But they never did so if you are looking at the TREND is does not matter. http://tinyurl.com/7wnqa73
I was making another point about the cartoon. The contestants "gave up looking". I say... Never give up, Never surrender! You are responsible for you destiny.
Are we really going in the "right direction". The unemployment reports from week to week total over 270,000 unemployment claims.
Meaning that over 270,000 are first time claims each week. Compare that to about 70,000 to maybe 120,000 jobs "created or saved" per month.
I don't know about you but it appears to me that those numbers indicate more people are "out of work" each month compared to people "being put back to work" each month?.
TODAY : In the most impressive surge for the job market since early last year, the United States added 243,000 jobs in January, far more than economists expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest in three years.
Hiring accelerated across the economy and up and down the pay scale. The high-salary professional services industry added 70,000 jobs, the most in 10 months. Manufacturing added 50,000, the most in a year.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jZgXU1TC6IXqwG9cnSWF4HTw__Zg?docId=e1a84548b8134deb831a6321b5bb4bdb
Considering in the prior year there were 402,000 jobless claims each week and 474,000 jobless claims each week in 2009, I would say we are headed in the right direction
Yes, let's hope.
It is reported that although the unemployment rate officially went down to 8.3 percent, "if workers who have dropped out of the labor force were included, some economists estimate, the unemployment could be higher than 10 percent."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/03/us-economy-adds-tktk-jobs_n_1252209.html?1328277769
That is always the case. People have dropped off for many years. That is why I would looking at the trend rather than the number. The increase in demand is causing employers to hire which is putting money in people's pockets which is increasing demand.
Our company of around 100 people hired six more people in the past five months and is looking to hire five more right now.
I am optimistic about the trend that I see. The markets are up as well,. The Nasdaq reached an 11 year high this week.
I agree. The trend is good. It's important to remember, though, that the number is not accurate, many many people are still hurting and that the unemployment rate is a political pawn for both parties.
Funny i was just reading about 2011 job cuts and losses and whats predicted or announced. As jobs get added we lose many and it seems like we're just getting one sided statistics. Look at the unemployment figures, normally alot higher than % we're being told so they dont look bad. Are these one sided statistics to paint a better picture than really is ?
Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-
-02/03/2012-
(ZeroHedge) A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!
So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million.
Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.
(((Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!))): http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/People%20Not%20In%20Labor%20Force.jpg
(((And Labor Force Participation))): http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/Participation%20Rate.jpg
This is the largest absolute jump in 'Persons Not In Labor Force' on record...and biggest percentage jump in 30 years. (below)
(((See Graph))): http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/01/20120202_notinlabor.png
::::::::::::::::: Implied Unemployment Rate Rises To 11.5%,::::::::::::::::::
:::::::: Spread To Propaganda Number Surges To 30 Year High ::::::::
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/implied-unemployment-rate-rises-115-spread-propaganda-number-surges-30-year-high
-02/03/2012-
Sick of the BLS propaganda? Then do the following calculation with us: the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January, an increase of 1.7 million month over month: apply the long-term average labor force participation rate of 65.8% to this number (because as chart 2 below shows, people are not retiring as the popular propaganda goes: in fact labor participation in those aged 55 and over has been soaring as more and more old people have to work overtime, forget retiring), and you get 159.4 million: that is what the real labor force should be. The BLS reported one? 154.4 million: a tiny 5 million difference.
Then add these people who the BLS is purposefully ignoring yet who most certainly are in dire need of labor and/or a job to the 12.758 million reported unemployed by the BLS and you get 17.776 million in real unemployed workers. What does this mean? That using just the BLS denominator in calculating the unemployed rate of 154.4 million, the real unemployment rate actually rose in January to 11.5%. Compare that with the BLS reported decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. It also means that the spread between the reported and implied unemployment rate just soared to a fresh 30 year high of 3.2%. And that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda.
Difference between Reported and Implied Unemployment Rate:
(((SeeGraph))): http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/Spread%202.jpg
And why the Labor Force Participation rate is not declining due to retirement.
(((SeeGraph))): http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/Labor%20Force%20Part%20Rate.jpg
http://www.shadowstats.com/ $$$ http://www.shadowstats.com/ $$$ http://www.shadowstats.com/
:::::::::: CBO: Taxes Will ‘Shoot Up by More Than 30 Percent’ Over Next 2 Years ::::::::::
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/cbo-taxes-will-shoot-more-30-percent-over-next-2-years
-January 31, 2012-
Having a look at how our government controlled "free-economy" is doing in a another department.
:::::::::: Government Bailout To See $23 Billion Loss This Year: CBO ::::::::::
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/31/government-bailout-loss_n_1245456.html?ref=business
-01/31/2012-
Most self respecting adults correctly identify that as corporatism, not capitalism ...much less a free-market
Capitalism ~lets~ insolvent institutions Fail, period.
Yes, Joe the Farmer, currently and this may be just because of seasonal reasons, unemployment is down..and the trend is going down although it's high..
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
But AA wants to dump 13,000 workers and the Baltic Dry Index looks really bad..
http://www.markets.com/news/indices-commodities/02-03-12/shipping-is-plunging-012403.html
We might be headed in the right direction and there may be a reason for your optimism but looking at all the data..We are in a Global Depression..
There is no demand and when there is it creates slave jobs in China, not here.
Our country needs to have a strong financial sector, manufacturing sector and retail sector... With what I'd call stepping stone jobs for people who are smart but cannot afford college...
But our politicians and the people that own them don't want that....It's like having a football team where the manager and the coaches want the team to fail, because they've placed bets against their own team...
We need to fire the managers and kill the owner.
By many statistics there are still about 30 million unemployed. And austerity feeds decline which appears to be our government policy now. So I think we are on a downward spiral.
99ers and 99%ers and others in this DEPRESSION, need to join hands.
It's all worse than you realize.
We ARE ISOLATED!!
Unite and Win!
It's getting better all the time. A little better all the time.
It's all better than you realize.
There are more opportunities today than in the past 2,000 years
Set your goal, work hard and you will Win!
i love the positive nature of this notion coupled with pure naivete. ask any of my friends who went to law school and passed the bar, only to realize the profession is radically over-supplied and demand for services is going way down. they cannot find work... they worked their asses off to get to this point only to realize it's a dark tunnel without a light at the end. now apply that to the engineers, accountants, etc.... list goes on.
I was smart enough to look ahead to which jobs would be in demand and chose software engineer.
Not needing more lawyers is a GOOD thing IMHO.
All the demand is in technology and health care.
Here are the top jobs in demand for 2012:
oh come on joe, that's one year 2012 not a 35 year career. i could envision most of those field going away. in fact i know numerous bio-med engineers, who are out of work, and continue to be laid off due to the 2014 patent cliff at major medical. customer service, india, the analysts? india i worked with someone who fixed my computer remotely from india just yesterday... numbers 4,9, and 10--gone or very low paying--think about what happened to programming and code writers--they've been decimated to india, etc... and law was very hot in certain periods; particularly 1997-2001 before the tech/internet boom went boom. there's no way to predict that long term, except maybe energy and auto.
You are missing the point. I would not chose computer help desk as a career and that is not on the list.
As for 4, 9 and 10, I chose to include jobs that do not need a degree. There is a different list for only those with a degree. Most of the jobs are in healthcare.
There are plenty of software jobs right here in the US. In fact as an independent consultant I have not gone a day without work since 1987. Some of the recent projects were fixing code that was created overseas.
I am not upset that there are no jobs for your lawyer friends. You r numerous bio eng friends must really suck if they cannot get a job. Many people skate through college and do not really put in the effort to be top of the class. Works out great for those of us with drive and vision.
no the bio guys are suffering from big pharma layoffs--some have PhDs and are highly regarded in their fields... they'll eventually find something. shit i even know doctors being laid off, and i know nobody likes lawyers but it's a practical skill but demand and supply have grown very out of balance substantially and it's getting worse in the depression as more people seek the presumed shelter of education when they're laid off.
I did 2 min research to get that list. I go t that list from MSNBC. I do not see bio-engineer on other lists so you may be right. I would do a lot more research if I were just starting out. I do see the healthcare, and IT on all the other lists. My son is 13 and is already writing game mods. I am OK with that idea.
My niece went to college for free because she chose Nursing. She is now working on her PHD and is not paying for that either.
My point is career choice. Don't go to school for a field that is saturated. I even looked at what people were going to school for and not a lot were choosing electrical engineering so I chose that. I switched to computer engineering when I saw the demand.
Everything seems to become saturated over time, implying to me that there are too many people. Change in demand is rapid and becoming moreso, so one cannot predict what that demand will be 40 years out. 10 years ago many nurses in my area were being laid off en mass, as were programmers; now the situation has changed for nurses at least.
Are you being sarcastic? Or Polly Anna?
Yes, the market and the "ECONOMY" are beyond a recession, but unfortunately, the people are in a DEPRESSION.
And it is totally the REPUBLICONS fault! They did this to make America mad, and they knew the media would not cover it.
IT'S UP TO US!!!
what do you expect when several GOPers said they don't want to help the country during their tenure, but that their primary goal is to get obama out!! Now does that sound like it should be your primary legislative agenda? It's what I call insanity, abuse of office, brutishness, small mindedness, and morally reprehensible.
Keep it up and keep it lit.
Unite and Win! Unite and WIN! 2010 Never EVER Again!!
Quit being a Obummer lapdog, here is the real unemployment numbers and not the ones fudged by the Obammy admin
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-jobless-rate-114-realistic-labor-force-participation-rate
But the trend is the same. It is starting to go down in spite of Obama. I did not vote for him and will not this round.
I hope the trend continues none the less.
I hope so to