Forum Post: The Fourth Turning (William Strauss and Neil Howe)
Posted 12 years ago on July 24, 2012, 1:06 p.m. EST by NLake72
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This is really interesting stuff. It's well worth spending a few minutes listening to these authors' perspective. The thumbnail overview is that history more or less repeats itself, and that it happens in cycles of roughly 80 years (a “natural” century-- the natural lifetime of a person.) Every 20 years, a new generation of children are born who have their own perspectives on world events, and each generation has certain behavior patterns... Very thought provoking. In case anyone here has any doubts, it seems we've entered The Fourth Turning as of the 2008 financial crisis, and we've got another 15 years of hard times ahead... All things being equal, of course. The Fourth Turning sounds like some horrible “end of civilization” scenario, and it's always possible... However, from these crises comes a new beginning, for better or worse... How we react to these times is up to us, and will define the content of our nation's character.
Overview of Strauss and Howe's ideas
Part 1 (14 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6B-ZnZgd6E&feature=relmfu
Part 2 (12 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ljM2Cvxrsk&feature=relmfu
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I agree that this kind of thinking is... seductive, and I don't buy it 100% either, but it seems to have some merit.
I also agree that Howe seems extremely optimistic, certainly he tries to look at the bright side of things... And, this also put me off at first, but I think that's something we all are going to need if we are going to have the courage to face the next few years-- whatever specific hardships they may bring.
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Yeah, Howe makes no promises how it'll all turn out. He says pretty clearly that leadership matters... America might not survive this crisis, nor was it a sure thing about any of the previous crises our nation has faced. He uses the 1930's analogy: We can choose a Hitler figure, or we can choose an FDR type of figure to lead us out of hard times.
The Fourth Turning is a very grim crossroads, and there's no predicting how it'll all turn out, because nobody knows what the next new age will be about. That's the rub... What we stand up for, what we care most deeply about, the content of our nation's character... This is what will be tested.
Ok Zen, you're right... we're probably screwed. In fact, I'm almost sure you're right. Either way, it's not really up to you or me, it's up to you and me to read and think and try to educate others, and try to find ways to keep it all together in a manner our forefathers would approve of.
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Well, I think you're pretty much right on the mark, I assume you've read some of this guy's books. These are extremely challenging times we are living in, and yes, I'd say we're in way worse shape the the 1930's-- and it can get a whole lot more... dramatic... in a short amount of time (The Fourth Turning pretty much insists that it will be so.)
But, like you say, you're willing to do your part. That's a sign that teamwork is in your blood, which is the order of the day. Coming together, finding compromise, getting educated and sharing ideas with others... The 1% HATE these things, and it's important that they do: This is a cultural shift, and we'll see more of it in the future... The "me" generation is passing from the light, and a new way of thinking is starting to grow at the grassroots level. This is a positive sign that if the people come together, and agree to work together, that the 1% don't stand a chance. It may not be pretty, but maybe we can keep our instincts and values intact... What we do and think today matters tomorrow. Apparently, it will matter a great deal.