Forum Post: Party Breakdown: Better Options ARE Possible
Posted 12 years ago on April 29, 2012, 9:25 p.m. EST by hchc
(3297)
from Tampa, FL
This content is user submitted and not an official statement
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1
When you keep in mind that 50% don't vote, and many don't because of the horrific choices every year.
When doing the math, only 21% of the people are registered Dems, and even less are registered Reps (15%). Indies make up a very close third @ 12%.
Grab a few points from both mainstream parties, and pull in half the indies, along with mabye 20% of those that dont vote, and you have a victory.
Get a little more, and you have a blow out, in election terms.
This is the type of stuff that neither party wants anyone to start really thinking about. Because realizing is believing, and believing eventually turns to action.
There is your change. The change that most of us want.
The following figures are based on numbers from the USA Today article and US Census figures.
According to USA Today, there are 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered Republicans, and 24 million registered Independents. That's a total of 96 million registered voters.
According to the latest census numbers, there are 229.7 million people of voting age in the US, meaning there are 133 million unregistered people of voting age.
The USA Today figures work out to 43.75% registered Dem's, 31.25% registered Rep's, and 25% registered Ind's.
If you apply those percentages to the unregistered voters (this assumes if they were to register, the same percentages would probably apply), this works out to 58.2 million unregistered potential Dem's, 41.5 million unregistered potential Rep's, and 33.3 million unregistered potential Ind's.
Let's assume the Republicans were a lost cause in this scenario, due to their conservative views. The number of unregistered potential Dem's plus the unregistered potential Ind's is 91.4 million unregistered. At the 1/3rd, 1/3rd. 1/3rd split you mention below, that leaves 60 million unregistered that might be persuaded to vote. Forget the last 1/3rd, those are the one's that simply don't care, so they probably won't be voting no matter what.
If half the registered Ind's got behind a single candidate = 12 million voting for Independent candidate 'A.' If one out of ten registered Dem's (those most disgusted with Obama) could get on board = 4.2 million "converts." That's 16.2 million voting for Independent candidate'A.'
Now we have 37.8 million Dem's voting for Obama (42 mil - 4.2 mil.) And . . . . . . . . 16.2 million voting for Ind' candidate 'A.' And . . . . . . . . 60.0 million unregistered potential voters.
Just half the Ind's and one out of ten Dem converts voting for Ind candidate 'A' leaves a 21.6 million voter deficit for Candidate 'A' to tie Obama.
If one out of five disgusted Dem's converted, it leaves a deficit of 17.4 million voters.
There's still 12 million registered Independents up for grabs. There's still 60 million unregistered potential votes up for grabs.
The Ind's would need 17.4 million votes out of a potential pool of 72 million people of voting age.
This scenario completely ignores any potential Republican converts.
The numbers are there. They're to be found in the 66 million registered Dem's and Ind's and the 60 million unregistered potential voters.
If the 42 million registered Dem's all voted for Obama, that represents only 18.3% of all Americans of voting age and above. In other words, Obama will be elected although only 18.3% of all voters want him.
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This needs to be a main thread ASAP....
Great job.
I may take you up on that.
The Elites are knee deep in corruption, along with the D and R parties. The possibilities this country is being robbed of is astronomical.
Only when the people decide they want NEW, do we get CHANGE.
Excellent post
Couldn't have put it better myself.
Most don't vote because they don't care.
Go poll. Its usually in thirds
It's those first two thirds that should be the focus, of course.
Yes, the first two "thirds" of the none voting are STARVING for something real, not this fake TV shit.
I ran some numbers this morning. I'm about to post them to this thread. Tell me what you think (give me a couple minutes).
Yep to get myself called up for jury duty every time I turn around, it better be someone I believe in. All I've seen has been crap. I still want to shoot myself because I voted for Clinton the first time around.