Forum Post: great.depression.2.?

There's a saying that is very simple but seems to elude many people. It goes, one can't see the forest for the trees. This simple saying describes the dilemma America is facing today and many other countries as well. America is the sole military super power in the world and arguably the leading technological power in the world.

There's another saying which is also a quote from a philosopher....those who forget history are condemned to repeat it....

While history does seem to repeat itself it doesn't seem to repeat it in exactly the same way. America has incredible technology that our ancestors probably never dreamed could exist... America is also on the verge of a monumental collapse the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. These are the best of times and these are the worst of times. Perhaps it is always like that and that is just the nature of the universe in which we live.

Times are hard for a lot of people today. Officialdom is losing credibility. Some seem to want the government to fail. Of course, that's insane because if the words 'we the people' means anything then we will all go down.

Academia at one time said that a repeat of such an event as the Great Depression could not happen again because of all the laws and regulations put in place by FDR and his administration after the great depression to prevent another one taking place. That was true for 50 years or so, even with the almost predictable boom/bust economic cycles.

Then, Ronald Reagan and his administration came along and proceeded to dismantle many of the laws and regulations put in place by the Roosevelt administration. Succeeding administrations more or less followed suit with the Reagan administration economic policies. Mainly, deregulation of business.

While those actions by the Reagan administration did spur economic growth for a fairly long time it now seems, at least, some of those actions were unwise IF you take the long view. Some say, that the longer the boom cycle the longer the bust cycle. Who knows?

Almost all the people that lived through the Great Depression are now dead or very aged and hardly anybody listens to those people. But there are history books, economics text books and the children of those people that lived through that depression that have first hand accounts.

Simply put, the main feature of that time in American history was that hardly anybody you knew had any money. Or if people you knew did have money or strangers had money they were reluctant to lend you any or hire you, not because they were evil, but they were facing hard times themselves. Or perhaps, they were just too worried about their own money. Not so dissimilar to what we see today but on a relatively small scale in comparison to the whole population and not near as widespread as the Great Depression.

This is where the forest and trees comes in. While it's true that many, if not the majority, are seemingly doing quite well. They may own successful businesses or have well paying jobs that seem very secure. Those people may be quite concerned about the present economic 'recession' but they probably feel fairly well secure in their own positions.

But while they are focused on themselves and their own situation in life they tend to ignore the bigger picture, the future trends and the plight of others. Not because they are evil but that's the way the system works. Adam Smith's invisible hand of self-interest at work that benefits all eventually. So you are not expected to look at the big picture. That's the government's job but as we are all told often, the government can't do anything right. So, is anyone minding the store?

During the day time hours the media paints a concerned but generally a rosy scenario of America's economic future. However, if you tune in to the late night television news programs or the non mainstream media programs you will get a very different view of things. Things are not so rosy.

This is not alarming in itself but it's kind of like the old joke. How do you tell the difference between a recession and a depression? A recession is when your neighbor is out of work and a depression is when you are out of work.

There is such a thing as the domino effect. If your neighbor loses his job you may not be affected directly but someone else is because that person that lost his/her job can not pay some one else and on it goes until it may just come back to you. What goes around, comes around. We're all in the same boat whether we like it or not.

It is virtually impossible to predict the future. No one has a perfect crystal ball but if you stop what you are doing once in awhile and look around at what is happening to others near and far that crystal ball might become a bit less cloudy. Probably most people don't have the time to do that but some do and they should be listened to as much as economists.

The good news is that we have history to look at and study and we can correct errors with that were made in the past. We now have computers to do the number crunching to get real data if the assumptions and inputs are true to begin with. Buckminster Fuller wrote about this in his book, Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth. An engineer, scientist, philosopher and many other things. He was no pie in sky, pipe dreamer. His book and many others he wrote should be revisited at this time. In that book, he wrote that through the computer all of humanities problems could be solved because it is science and logic that solves those problems, which is not to discount the real meaning and message of all the religions and spiritual yearnings from the very beginning which is all the same in the end.

Only when we come to the self realization that our own self interest is undeniably linked to the common interest will the small steps begin along the path that Bucky outlined. Part of that process is to look at the whole forest and not just individual trees.