Posted 10 years ago on April 30, 2012, 5:36 p.m. EST by gnomunny
from St Louis, MO
This content is user submitted and not an official statement
The following figures are based on numbers from the USA Today article and US Census figures.
According to USA Today, there are 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered Republicans, and 24 million registered Independents. That's a total of 96 million registered voters.
According to the latest census numbers, there are 229.7 million people of voting age in the US, meaning there are 133 million unregistered people of voting age.
The USA Today figures work out to 43.75% registered Dem's, 31.25% registered Rep's, and 25% registered Ind's.
If you apply those percentages to the unregistered voters (this assumes if they were to register, the same percentages would probably apply), this works out to 58.2 million unregistered potential Dem's, 41.5 million unregistered potential Rep's, and 33.3 million unregistered potential Ind's.
Let's assume the Republicans were a lost cause in this scenario, due to their conservative views. The number of unregistered potential Dem's plus the unregistered potential Ind's is 91.4 million unregistered. At the 1/3rd, 1/3rd. 1/3rd split you mention below, that leaves 60 million unregistered that might be persuaded to vote. Forget the last 1/3rd, those are the one's that simply don't care, so they probably won't be voting no matter what.
If half the registered Ind's got behind a single candidate = 12 million voting for Independent candidate 'A.' If one out of ten registered Dem's (those most disgusted with Obama) could get on board = 4.2 million "converts." That's 16.2 million voting for Independent candidate'A.'
Now we have 37.8 million Dem's voting for Obama (42 mil - 4.2 mil.) And . . . . . . . . 16.2 million voting for Ind' candidate 'A.' And . . . . . . . . 60.0 million unregistered potential voters.
Just half the Ind's and one out of ten Dem converts voting for Ind candidate 'A' leaves a 21.6 million voter deficit for Candidate 'A' to tie Obama.
If one out of five disgusted Dem's converted, it leaves a deficit of 17.4 million voters.
There's still 12 million registered Independents up for grabs. There's still 60 million unregistered potential votes up for grabs.
The Ind's would need 17.4 million votes out of a potential pool of 72 million people of voting age.
This scenario completely ignores any potential Republican converts.
The numbers are there. They're to be found in the 66 million registered Dem's and Ind's and the 60 million unregistered potential voters.
If the 42 million registered Dem's all voted for Obama, that represents only 18.3% of all Americans of voting age and above. In other words, Obama will be elected although only 18.3% of all voters want him.
Edit: some figures from the 2008 election: Out of the 212.7 million Americans of voting age (only 132.6 million actually voted) 69.45 million voted for Obama, meaning Obama was elected with 32.7% of the total voting age population.
One could argue that the President is elected by the non-voters. Assuming, of course, that the whole game isn't one giant smokescreen. The jury's still out.