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Forum Post: Amateur Economists Read This

Posted 9 years ago on Nov. 13, 2011, 7:40 p.m. EST by Rico (3027)
This content is user submitted and not an official statement

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is the banker for the central banks. If you're into this kind of thing, you'll find some interesting conclusions in both their quarterly and annual reports.

Annual Report, 26 June 2011 : http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2011e.pdf

Quarterly Report, 19 September 2011 : http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1109.pdf

I expect all the Austrians to get flaming mad ;o)



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[-] 3 points by opensociety4us (914) from Norwalk, CT 9 years ago

a summary of those conclusions would be helpful

[-] 1 points by MonetizingDiscontent (1257) 9 years ago

Counterparty Risk. Hedge accordingly. Litost.

[-] 1 points by Rico (3027) 9 years ago

Basel III does just that.

[-] 1 points by david19harness (87) 9 years ago

Just the Austrians? In Oct 2008, when we were "just hours away form a global financial meltdown" the Corporate exposure to Derivatives was 170 trillion...now its 290 trillion...while we're being told they managed the crisis...while we're being told everything's fine...right up until the last minute when the bottom falls out. Amateurs.

So what's yer call on D-Day? Sometime in 2012?

[-] 1 points by Rico (3027) 9 years ago

I was referring to the eternal struggle between the Austrian and Keynesian Schools of thought. If we have a "D-DAY" it will result from really stupid political action.

[-] 1 points by david64 (48) from Oswestry, England 9 years ago

I would expect gold to be spiralling towards $3500 if the bottom was getting seriously loose. However, I'd imagine things are going to be rough next year. Glad I am getting a load of solar panels put in :)

[-] 1 points by mvjobless (370) 9 years ago

Are you sure the derivatives exposure is only 290? I heard it was up about 600 trillion as recently as a month ago.

[-] 1 points by david19harness (87) 9 years ago

I picked up the 290 trillion number from the Wiess "Daily Reckoning" newsletter. 600 trillion could easily be where the exponential growth curve is at now.

Amateurs...we're all Children of Voodoo Economics, born of the 1980 Presidential election borrow-and-spend deal-with-the-devil now coming due.

"If we have a "D-DAY" it will result from really stupid political action." I've been watching that really stupid political action for +30 years. The so-called financial conservative Bush Sr. predicted the Reagan-Cheney "Slippery-Slope" Keynesian economics would crash...before they won the 1980 election and started the world down their rose garden path. Stupid is one word, I can think of other words.

[-] 1 points by mvjobless (370) 9 years ago

Do you think that perhaps the Voodoo Economics may have started with Nixon finally ending the gold standard in 1971? I was listening to some economists a few days ago talking about the possiblity or even the necessity of going back to the gold standard.

[-] 1 points by Rico (3027) 9 years ago

Nixon Shock of 1971 was a natural consequence of the rest of the world finally emerging from WW II devastation. The Bretton Woods scheme fell apart, and the Triffin Dilemma became obvious for all to see.

[-] 1 points by david19harness (87) 9 years ago

No mvjobless, I see the 1980 Presidential election as the start of Voodoo Economics, for the reason it was the conscious decision of the national electorate. Carter withdrew to Camp David, then from the Oval Office basically asked "How about a little moderation?" The electorate responded with a landslide "Hell NO! Let's go with this Reagan-conservative spokesmodel and start cashing in the Chips!"

Not exactly Keynesian or Austrian, what would y'all say to the term Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization (RICO) economics? Catchy no?

[-] 3 points by mvjobless (370) 9 years ago

Yes, RICO economics certainly has a ring to it. It would make a good sign at the occupy protests.

[-] 1 points by david19harness (87) 9 years ago

Excellent idea! A new sign for the occupy protests! Just when I was starting to lose faith in OWS.

OK let's run with it...RICO economics...needs to be part of a slogan. Needs to rhyme with something, not too trite, this is an intellectual movement. Alright, quasi-intellectual...whoa, just noticed that this thread was started by Rico.

Perfect, proof of intelligent design...somehow. Still need the rest of the RICO economics slogan...


[-] 1 points by david19harness (87) 9 years ago

Sounds condescending professor, at what point did we make a non sequitur?

[-] 2 points by Rico (3027) 9 years ago

You're right. I deleted it.

[-] 1 points by looselyhuman (3117) 9 years ago

"I expect all the Austrians to get flaming mad"

Always a worthy goal. ;)

[-] 1 points by Rico (3027) 9 years ago

Yep. This should be interesting !